Asteroid 2024 YR4: Near-Zero Earth Impact Risk, Potential Lunar Collision in 2032


• Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially flagged for a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth, has been reassessed, with the probability of an Earth collision now reduced to a negligible 0.00078%.

• Instead, there's a 3.8% chance of 2024 YR4 striking the Moon on December 22, 2032, an event deemed harmless to Earth and its inhabitants.

• The asteroid, described as unusually flat and round, spinning rapidly, and measuring 130-300 feet wide, presents a unique scientific opportunity.

• A lunar impact would allow real-time observation of crater formation, providing invaluable data on impact dynamics, energy release, and improving our understanding of asteroid behavior.

• This event underscores the importance of continuous near-Earth object monitoring and the development of strategies for planetary defense against potential future threats.


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